#015
What is to give light must endure burning.
Hello Readers.
This Weekly Open is nothing short of brutal.
Another close under key metrics is sending the market lower in the early hours of the opening candle.
That’s what bear markets are about. False hopes, lack of narrative, and a slow bleed of most market participants.
However let’s remember this key adage:
The Market often tops on good news and bottoms on bad news.
Remember Coinbase IPO? A Mass-Adoption narrative on top of a 600% uptrend in 6 months. Bullish Frenzy was all around, and that was the first top of the last bull run.
As we brace for another FED interest rate meeting today while a worldwide recession is looming, it looks like there isn’t much we can do to prevent the market from nuking lower.
Could this avalanche of bad news form the bottom as sentiment gets crushed?
Trend, Support and Resistance, Moving Averages
As mentionned in my last newsletter, “The Vantage Point”, A successful break above the 200 Weeks and 50 Days MA was crucial for bulls and sentiment.
With that being said, I advised to remain really cautious both here and on Twitter as the last time we did ended up being a fake break out.
As we are tumbling back down with velocity, we find ourselves at the higher extremity of the broken accumulation range that we once exited after a month of sideways drama.
If we are to not hold this zone, I expect us to swiftly test the 21K area at the current 0.618 Fibonacci level.
This is where the bidders of last resort shall see the best risk:reward bottom scooping opportunity for current parameters. If the bottom is in, 21K is the ultimate bidding area.
Needless to say we must then hold above the 0.618 to remain optimistic that we are forming a bottom. Spending some time under $21,000 after breaking out like this will be no bueno, meaning potential lower lows.
As trend followers, the unbiased route is still to be in Cash and patient for Bitcoin as it looks like it hasn’t yet found enough narrative to have a proper - and overdue - major relief rally, even though we’ve spend 6 consecutive weeks below the 200-Weeks Moving Average.
We’ve got good support below, there is no point shorting this.
If you’re a Bull, stay safe for now. If you’re a bear, remember to be open minded that the trend is your friend until it bends and ends.
We could be approaching the point of ultimate opportunity.
I stand my ground in believing that this cycle’s bottom is already in.
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This is not financial advice.
Please always do your own research.